{"id":10745,"date":"2024-07-31T08:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-07-31T06:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.blog.neoprog.eu\/?p=10745"},"modified":"2024-07-28T10:16:10","modified_gmt":"2024-07-28T08:16:10","slug":"previsible","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.blog.neoprog.eu\/index.php\/2024\/07\/31\/previsible\/","title":{"rendered":"Pr\u00e9visible"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Ceux qui vivent en Alsace le savent bien, les pr\u00e9visions m\u00e9t\u00e9orologiques allemandes sont bien plus fiables que les fran\u00e7aises. M\u00e9t\u00e9o Suisse est beaucoup plus pr\u00e9cise pour la montagne et les Derni\u00e8res Nouvelles d\u2019Alsace d\u00e9testent M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Je c\u00f4toie quelques astronomes amateurs alsaciens, du coup j\u2019en entends des vertes et des pas m\u00fbres au sujet des pr\u00e9visions m\u00e9t\u00e9orologiques. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Car en astronomie, la couverture nuageuse, la vitesse du vent, l\u2019humidit\u00e9 de l\u2019air ou la hauteur de la couche d\u2019inversion, la turbulence sont des facteurs d\u00e9terminants pour la qualit\u00e9 d\u2019une observation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Certains utilisent M\u00e9t\u00e9oblue, d\u2019autres Ventusky, Infoclimat et d\u2019autres. Moi je me sers \u00e0 la source, chez M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France<\/a> o\u00f9 tournent les mod\u00e8les. Et bizarrement, je ne suis pas souvent d\u2019accord avec les analyses m\u00e9t\u00e9orologiques des autres astronomes amateurs avec qui j\u2019\u00e9change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pr\u00e9cisons tout de suite que j\u2019ai \u00e9t\u00e9 un bien pi\u00e8tre pr\u00e9visionniste \u00e0 Roissy au d\u00e9but de ma carri\u00e8re. Une science qui ne m\u2019a jamais vraiment passionn\u00e9 pour \u00eatre tout \u00e0 fait honn\u00eate. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alors j\u2019utilise l\u2019application M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France et ses pictogrammes assez basiques pour savoir le temps qu\u2019il va faire comme tout un chacun. H\u00e9las un picto de ciel clair ne signifie pas un ciel adapt\u00e9 \u00e0 l\u2019astronomie. Il peut y avoir un l\u00e9ger voile de nuages \u00e9lev\u00e9s qui va pourrir les photographies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Comme je bosse dans cette petite administration tant d\u00e9cri\u00e9e par tout le monde, j\u2019ai un acc\u00e8s privil\u00e9gi\u00e9 \u00e0 la maison aux mod\u00e8les ainsi qu\u2019\u00e0 l\u2019imagerie radar et satellite depuis un navigateur web. Je peux consulter les pr\u00e9visions \u00e0 mailles fines \u00e0 48 heures des diff\u00e9rentes couches nuageuses, les champs de vents au sol et en altitude et les temp\u00e9ratures pour savoir si je vais cailler.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tr\u00e8s souvent je vois circuler des informations farfelues sur le temps qu\u2019il va faire sur le Whatsapp de l\u2019association. Alors je rectifie en \u00e9mettant les r\u00e9serves d\u2019usage car on parle ici de pr\u00e9vision, m\u00eame \u00e0 courte \u00e9ch\u00e9ance, et sans me vanter, je gagne presque toujours \u00e0 ce jeu, parce que, j\u2019ai devant les yeux les observations satellites et les mod\u00e8les, qui corroborent le plus souvent les pictogrammes color\u00e9s de M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La concurrence utilise les m\u00eames observations et mod\u00e8les que nous (nos observations et mod\u00e8les en fait). Certains de leurs produits poss\u00e8dent des looks plus sexy que les n\u00f4tres. Ce sont les m\u00eames donn\u00e9es qui les alimentent mais probablement pas \u00e0 la m\u00eame fr\u00e9quence. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Plusieurs dizaines de pr\u00e9visionnistes travaillent 24 heures sur 24 pour choisir le mod\u00e8le, \u00e9laborer la vigilance, r\u00e9diger des bulletins et surveiller l\u2019\u00e9volution de la situation m\u00e9t\u00e9orologique. Certes, ce sont ces fain\u00e9ants de fonctionnaires qui ont pr\u00e9vu 4 cm de neige sur la r\u00e9gion parisienne au lieu des 6 qui sont tomb\u00e9s provoquant la col\u00e8re d\u2019un ministre anti fonction publique.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mais quoiqu\u2019en pensent les alsacos plong\u00e9s dans la passionnante lecture des DNA, nos pr\u00e9visions sont bonnes, m\u00eame tr\u00e8s bonnes. Et dans le petit groupe WhatsApp des astronomes, on me contacte de plus en plus souvent pour avoir la situation m\u00e9t\u00e9orologique de la nuit\u00a0\u00e0 venir alors que je suis qu’une br\u00eale en pr\u00e9visions. Le d\u00e9faut c’est que je suis devenu l’oiseau de mauvaise augure du groupe WhatsApp. C’est moi qui annonce les mauvaises nouvelles, les \u00e9v\u00e8nements qui devront \u00eatre annul\u00e9s, les nuits nuageuses, mais je suis aussi celui qui promet parfois une petite fen\u00eatre inesp\u00e9r\u00e9e entre deux perturbations.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ceux qui vivent en Alsace le savent bien, les pr\u00e9visions m\u00e9t\u00e9orologiques allemandes sont bien plus fiables que les fran\u00e7aises. Continuer la lecture →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9428,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"image","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2810,59],"tags":[185,3252,2319,2320],"class_list":["post-10745","post","type-post","status-publish","format-image","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-astro","category-humeur","tag-astronomie","tag-meteo-france","tag-meteorologie","tag-previsions","post_format-post-format-image"],"yoast_head":"\nPr\u00e9visible - Le Blog du N\u00e9oprog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Ceux qui vivent en Alsace le savent bien, les pr\u00e9visions m\u00e9t\u00e9orologiques allemandes sont bien plus fiables que les fran\u00e7aises.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.blog.neoprog.eu\/index.php\/2024\/07\/31\/previsible\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Pr\u00e9visible - 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